1: 七波羅探題 ★ 2024/12/30(月) 21:45:43.30
「近い将来、タイやベトナムにも抜かれる」日本の１人あたりGDPが過去最低順位に…今や『“超”経済低迷国家』となった諸悪の根源とは
集英社オンライン2024.12.30
https://shueisha.online/articles/-/252769
内閣府が今年12月23日、日本のドル建て1人あたり名目国内総生産(GDP)が、2023年は3万3849ドルとの試算を公表した。この数字は、2年連続でOECD(経済協力開発機構)加盟38カ国中22番目で、21番目の韓国を2年連続下回る結果に…。そして22番という順位は、比較可能な1980年以降、最も低い順位となった。
■日本は「唯一無二の“超”経済低迷国家」
実際、この数値が意味するものとは何なのか。そして背景にはどのような原因が潜んでいるのだろうか。
第二次安倍内閣時に内閣官房参与を務めた京都大学大学院(都市社会工学専攻)の藤井聡教授に話を伺った。
まずは今回、韓国より下回ったＧＤＰの数値をどう受け止めているのか。
「40代以上の日本人にとってみれば、かつて隣国の韓国は日本よりも圧倒的に貧しい後進国でした。しかし、それも昔の話。数年前から大卒初任給の水準は韓国に追い抜かれており、日本経済が低迷し続けている今日、1人あたりのＧＤＰが韓国に抜かれるのは時間の問題でした。だから『ついにそのときが来た』という印象です」(藤井教授、以下同)
とはいえ、この結果がどれほど危機感を覚えるべきことなのか、ピンとこないのが正直なところ…。この数値が意味するものとはいったい何なのか。
「日本は過去25年以上、全く成長せず、平均賃金がなかなか伸びないどころか、むしろ徐々に下落してきている。それを当たり前のように感じている国民が多いですが、こんなに低迷しているのは世界広しといえど我が国一国だけなのです。
5％に引き上げられた1997年以降の経済成長率は、ダントツの最下位を記録しています。日本の1997年以降の平均経済成長率はわずか0.3％。これは10年経っても３％しか成長しないという恐るべき低水準なんです。
対して世界全体は年平均で4.7％、10年で1.51倍に拡大するスピード感で成長を続けています。日本に次ぐ『成長率ワースト2位』のギリシャですら、年平均2.1％、10年で21％も成長しています。一方で韓国の平均成長率は5％強、これは世界平均より幾分高い程度で、とりたてて韓国が『超絶な成長国家』でもないわけです。
結論、韓国に追い抜かれたのは日本が『唯一無二の“超”経済低迷国家』であることの必然的帰結であり、いかに経済成長できていないかということを、実感をもって理解すべきなのです」
■きっかけは1997年の消費増税
『唯一無二の“超”経済低迷国家』といわれた日本だが、これを招いた原因は何なのか。
藤井教授はズバリ「政府の怠慢です」と断言するが、その背景にはマクロ経済学の観点から3つの段階に分かれるという。
まず1つ目が「市場の均衡」の変化。
「経済成長とは、国家全体の『需要』が『供給』を上回ることでもたらされます。『需要』が多ければ、各産業で『作ったもの/サービス』が基本的にすべて売れることになり、そうすると必然的に『売上』が拡大し、『賃金』が上昇、それと同時に物価が上昇します。そして賃金が上がれば、国民・企業の消費や投資が拡大します。
つまり、需要が供給を上回る限り、『需要の拡大→賃金上昇→さらなる需要の拡大』というプロセスと『需要の拡大→供給拡大』というプロセスが並行して進行し、経済は成長していきます」
そして2つ目に需要不足による「デフレ政策」。
「一方、需要が供給を下回っていれば、以上に述べたプロセスと完全に逆のプロセスが進行することになります。『需要不足→売れ残りの発生→売上の低迷＆物価下落→賃金下落→さらなる需要不足』という循環です。こうして経済は衰退していくわけですが、日本は1997年以降、このようなデフレに突入してしまいました」
そして3つ目は賃金上昇率を上回る「消費増税」。
「日本はＧＤＰのグラフで見ても、消費税を増税した1997年以降、『経済成長』から『経済低迷』へと大転換しています。1997年に需要不足が生じたのは、消費税が3％から5％へと引き上げられたからです。厳密にいえば、バブル崩壊で成長率がきわめて低調な状況の中、わずか年率『1％強』しかなかった賃金上昇率をはるかに上回る『2％』もの水準で消費税が引き上げられてしまい、需要不足によるデフレ不況に陥ったのです」
※以下出典先で
★1：2024/12/30(月) 18:21
前スレ
「近い将来、タイやベトナムにも抜かれる」今や日本が『超経済低迷国家』となった諸悪の根源とは★3
https://asahi.5ch.net/test/read.cgi/newsplus/1735558218/
<p style=”color:gray;text-align:right;”>引用元: <a href=”https://asahi.5ch.net/test/read.cgi/newsplus/1735562743/” target=”_blank”>・「近い将来、タイやベトナムにも抜かれる」今や日本が『超経済低迷国家』となった諸悪の根源とは★4 [七波羅探題★]</a></p>
2: 名無しどんぶらこ 2024/12/30(月) 21:45:52.88
>>1
諸悪の根源は
円安
インフレ
便乗値上げ業者
中抜き手抜き業者
投資詐欺業者
政治家とその癒着企業・団体とその従業員
税金チューチュー生活保護厨
仕事待遇勤務地選り好みFランニート
少子化利権持ちママ
だぞ！
#該当者が発狂
315: 名無しどんぶらこ 2024/12/30(月) 22:35:30.46
>>2
「自民党を批判する奴は朝鮮人」と言うネット活動をしていた奴が一番責任があると思う。
あれでどんどんおかしくなって行った。
438: 名無しどんぶらこ 2024/12/30(月) 22:48:59.23
>>2
財務省がないやり直し
20: 名無しどんぶらこ 2024/12/30(月) 21:50:37.87
>>1
日本のGDPが上がらないのは、日本がデフレだから。
そして日本がデフレなのは社会保障（税）に生活を依存する人が増えたから。
年金生活者や生活保護のような、社会保障に頼り経済活動によって所得が増えない人にお金を配っても、
そのお金の効果を最大化しようとしてより安い商品を購入する。
そしてその需要に応えようとする商社が第三国からより安い代替品を輸入し、
日本市場がより安い物品で満たされていく。
内需向けの製造業は原材料の輸入物価の上昇を従業員の給料を抑えることでデフレに対応してしまう。
日本がデフレを乗り越えGDPを上げるには、
輸出やインバウンドを利用して海外のインフレを国内に取り込むか社会保障費を削減するしかない。
日本を衰退に導いているのは、超円高政策で輸出産業を破壊した民主党や
憲法２５条を拡大解釈して社会保障を聖域化している人たちだよ。
31: 名無しどんぶらこ 2024/12/30(月) 21:53:02.17
>>1
諸悪の根源は公務員
112: 名無しどんぶらこ 2024/12/30(月) 22:05:08.77
>>1
子供家庭庁
119: 名無しどんぶらこ 2024/12/30(月) 22:06:19.21
>>1
いい加減オールドメディアが人との繋がりと家族の絆という名の怠ける事を流布するのを止めるべきだと思う。
270: 名無しどんぶらこ 2024/12/30(月) 22:29:48.26
>>1
デジタル化の波に上手く乗れなかった事が大きいですね。
アナログな技術、手先の器用さだけでは、大規模生産が必須の半導体生産に対応できません。
私は「ＧＨＱの呪い」と呼んでますけど、戦後の財閥解体。それ以降も独禁法で大企業合併を縛って、世界規模の大量生産を出来る企業が育たなかった。
デジタル分野で、韓国や中国に遅れを取ったのは、それが主因でしょう。
307: 名無しどんぶらこ 2024/12/30(月) 22:34:44.42
>>1
国民の怠慢が政府の劣化を招いたとは考えないのかね
394: 名無しどんぶらこ 2024/12/30(月) 22:44:19.06
>>1
諸悪の根源？
宗教政党と連立してる自民との責任でもある
523: 名無しどんぶらこ 2024/12/30(月) 22:57:38.22
>>1
しつこい奴だな
日本は生産人口のＧＤＰでは世界トップレベル
さらに2008年から新型コロナウイルス禍直前の2019年までの「生産年齢人口1人当たりGDP成長率」はG7で日本がトップだった
これが意味するところは日本のトータルの成長率を下げているのは非生産人口の増加で、非生産人口のほとんどは高齢者の増加が原因だった
https://www.thutmosev.com/archives/32312.html
546: 名無しどんぶらこ 2024/12/30(月) 22:59:56.92
>>523
なるほどなー
老人がとにかく長生きなんだよな日本は
コメント
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